The sensational recent presidential loser, Robert Kyagulanyi, pulled out of his election petition in the Supreme Court, announced that he had gone to the court of public opinion and called for protests supposedly to ‘reclaim’ his stolen victory. Clearly Kyagulanyi is in a meltdown trapped in his psychodrama treading on a rat path previously used by Kizza Besigye and Kenya's Raila Amolo Odinga. So far, the public countrywide has ignored him, even when he took his crocodile tears to parliament on Thursday.

The announcement that Kyagulanyi will be sworn-in as ‘president’ of Uganda on March 17th 2021 while a laughable false hope to his easy-to-fool followers is a disguised distraction from the Supreme Court ruling expected on March 18th 2021 over his petition withdrawal. Kyagulanyi has declared war, and left the planning and execution “to whom it may concern” hoping that the freebooters will invite him when all is over.

This type of war plan or lack of it isn’t new, remembering Dr Andrew Kayiira’s spectacular failure in 1982 when he raided Lubiri military barracks and Kizza Besigye when he lost presidential election in 2001 and took a four year sojourn in self-imposed exile in South Africa. In both cases many fighters were left on their own to face dangers when failure struck. In the case of the UFM, 68 of them dead and the wounded were hunted down by the UNLA from hospitals and killed. Kayiira, the adventurist only returned to Uganda in 1985 after President Milton Obote was toppled by an internal military coup. 

Kayiira made the longest withdrawal of 7000km from Kampala to the US while Besigye took 5000km to Pretoria in soft life with occasional visits to his family in Washington DC. Kyagulanyi’s war plans come four months after he airlifted his family to safety in the US, acquiring an alleged bullet-proof vest and vehicle.  

Like Besigye, Kyagulanyi has been making unsubstantiated claims that he won elections with 54.18% only showing piles of papers without strict scrutiny on the many falsehoods being peddled including the alleged four thousand supporters who have disappeared at the hands of the state. Journalists know the truth but have conveniently chosen to play along propagating falsehoods. Yet, Kyagulanyi has twice since substantially revised the figures to 375 without any logic and hasn’t explained NUP low performance at parliament and local council elections. 

In Besigye’s case it was a disguised effort at armed and civil rebellion which didn’t go far because of the adequate and effective preparedness of the state alongside peaceful democratic engagements with citizens. Up to-date, Besigye hasn’t made full accountability of those he led to needless deaths in the thick jungles of the Democratic Republic of Congo like his former political assistant James Opoka. 

We believe from evidence available that Kyagulanyi is being a copycat of Besigye, stoking provocation through use of rough language, open belligerence, soliciting foreign support and hoping to exploit discontent especially among the unwashed urban youths to spark political violence. NUP activists continue to wage a media campaign laced with lies, falsehoods, and well-calculated propaganda intended to incite hate and violence along tribal sectarian lines.

The trails show that Kyagulanyi and elements in the NUP are a dangerous, adventurous and myopic group that is planning widespread violence to bring Uganda to a standstill and hopefully collapse of civil governance, and will certainly end up in tears if not restrained early. Going by the violent events of November, security agencies need accolades for nuetralising heinous threats before they disrupt peace, stability and the economy. 

NUP has created a new radical wing dubbed ‘’Bali Bali’’ comprising hardcore criminal elements from the rough of the underworld from urban markets and Kampala slums that is currently circulating underground rumours, leaflets and recorded video messages urging people to stockpile foodstuffs to last weeks if possible. In addition, Bali Bali is in early rehearsals with a futile hope to disrupt President Museveni’s swearing-in ceremony in May and there is cash going around for this purpose.

However, knowing that most Uganda journalists are quite gullible, Kyagulanyi is gradually vacillating from overt hostile to civil posture with claims that his group is seeking peaceful protests yet he hasn’t informed the police as required by law. In military speak this is ‘shaping operation’ hoping that security agencies will lower their guards, and they strikes when law enforcement aren’t prepared like last November.

As an amateur, Kyagulanyi perhaps doesn’t know that his incitement to his supporters to ‘match’ on the Electoral Commission offices and demand for their purported victory betrays his sinister motives. In all this, the media and journalists covering his stunts have played professional incompetence, ignorance or complicity to his evident treachery. Some journalists are very active in this tomfoolery.

Now after ordering the battle to begin, Kyagulanyi is rushing to the rear, leaving presumably dedicated junior fighters to command his brigades. My warning is that when the bitter taste of defeat fills their mouths, the angry fighters will hunt down the absentee commander and sort out the issue of command permanently.